Conservative columnist Bill Krystol has a proven track record. He's pretty much always wrong. From Iraq and Afghanistan, to Iran and Georgia, Krystol has apparently never seen a potential military conflict he didn't argue for full speed ahead U.S. action. In conservative GOP circles, Krystol is one of the countless Republicans who feign intellectualism and encourage the kind of mindless thuggery practiced by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.
Bill Krystol's latest effort at making purses from sows ears is an op-ed column in today's Washington Post announcing "it's a good time to be a conservative". To back up his claim, Krystol cites a recent Gallup poll suggesting a jump in the number of Americans identifying themselves as conservative. But take a look at the polling data. The percentage of conservatives (40%) is no higher than it was throughout the Clinton presidency, and has only increased 3% in the last year. Krystol apparently didn't scroll down to the polling methodology section and notice there's a +/- 1% sampling error, meaning the increase over the year could be as little as 1%. Hardly a reason to begin planning an GOP inauguration party.
While Krystol wants to paint a rosy picture, the ideology trend has been pretty constant for the last twenty years; those identifying themselves as conservative at about 40%, another 40% independent and 20% calling themselves liberal.
And if one digs a bit deeper, which Bill Krystol won't recommend, one finds the ideological terms almost meaningless. It may well be that 40% of Americans consider themselves as conservative, the polling on individual issues shows a considerably more liberal population.
Anyway, not to rain on Krystol's parade, he ends his column with predictions on the GOP's near term future. To his credit, Krystol acknowledges the public's disgust with the Republican leadership and argues, therefore, that the party leaders will need to be outsiders.
The center of gravity, I suspect, will instead lie with individuals such as Palin and Huckabee and Gingrich, media personalities like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, and activists at town halls and tea parties. Some will lament this -- but over the past year, as those voices have dominated, conservatism has done pretty well in the body politic, and Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in test ballots.
Krystol should have spent more time looking at more polling than the one Gallup poll he so enjoyed. While it may be that Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, Beck, and Limbaugh fill a sizable void in the GOP's power lineup, the public overwhelming dislikes them. Sarah Palin's unfavorable rating is at 40%, Romney's is at 28% and Gingrich is at 38%.
Finally, Krystol cites several near term elections that are projected to be close as evidence the GOP has finally gotten its shit together and can now pose a serious threat to further Democratic gains.
The lesson activists around the country will take from this is that a vigorous, even if somewhat irritated, conservative/populist message seems to be more effective in revitalizing the Republican Party than an attempt to accommodate the wishes of liberal media elites.
I doubt anyone was speculating that Republicans would never win another election. And it certainly pays to have a committed and fired up base that can get out the vote. But if Krystol thinks it's somehow a "liberal" notion that some broad based support is required to win national elections, the Democrats should enjoy a majority position for a good long time.
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