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July 24, 2008

A Picture for the Day

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Gregoria Lopez sought shelter after her umbrella failed in the winds of Hurricane Dolly as the storm approached downtown Brownsville, Tex. Ms. Lopez, of Brownsville, was trying to get to the bridge to cross into Mexico. (NY Times)

Justice to CIA Torture Memos Released

The ACLU has released a series of memos between the Justice Department and the CIA effectively claiming that “as long as CIA agents could convince themselves they were not deliberately inflicting severe pain or suffering on detainees, they were free to do virtually anything in their questioning of suspected terrorists, including waterboarding.”

From an August 2002 memo:

To violate the statute [against torture], an individual must have the specific intent to inflict severe pain or suffering. Because specific intent is an element of the offense, the absence of specific intent negates the charge of torture. As we have previously opined, to have the required specific intent, an individual must expressly intend to cause such severe pain and suffering.  (Link)

The Associated Press reports on the August 2002 memo:

(The) DoJ memo told the CIA "that its interrogators would be safe from prosecution for violations of anti-torture laws if they believed `in good faith' that harsh techniques used to break the will of prisoners, including waterboarding, would not cause 'prolonged mental harm.'

The Aug. 1, 2002 memo signed by then-Assistant Attorney General Jay Bybee was issued the same day he wrote a memo for then-White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales defining torture as only those "extreme acts" that cause pain similar in intensity to that caused by death or organ failure. That memo was later rescinded by the Justice Department.

Wow, that's some lousy legal advice.  If you didn't really mean to torture a detainee you can't be criminally prosecuted for breaking anti-torture statutes.  You will always have deniability.  (I suppose, using the same logic, murderers can argue they shouldn't be charged with murder because they really didn't mean to kill their victim).

Reading excerpts from the memos, I was reminded of the recent interview with the North Vietnamese prison guard that held John McCain at the Hanoi Hilton prisoner of war camp:

"If I were an American voter, I would vote for Mr. John McCain," Tran Trong Duyet said Friday, sitting in his living room in the northern city of Haiphong, surrounded by black-and-white photos of a much younger version of himself and former Vietnam War prisoners.

At the same time, he denies prisoners of war were tortured. Despite detailed POW accounts and physical wounds, Duyet claims the presumed Republican presidential nominee made up beatings and solitary confinement in an attempt to win votes. (Link)

That's really the way it works, isn't it?  Torturers will never admit they've tortured.  It's all about developing that deniability. 

The Loaded FOX News Poll

Fox-news-logo-ec This just goes to prove you can make a poll come out any way you want based on how the questions are phrased.  Here's some questions from the FOX News poll:

Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about Barack Obama that scares them?
Yes 49%
No 50%

Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about John McCain that scares them?
Yes 36%
No 62%

Some people believe Barack Obama, despite his professed Christianity, is secretly a Muslim. Others say that is just a rumor and Obama really is a Christian as he says, and point out he's attended a Christian church for years. What do you believe -- is Obama a Muslim or a Christian?
Muslim 10%
Christian 57%

John McCain was held captive for five years in a North Vietnamese prisoner of war camp. Do you think that experience would make McCain a better president or a worse president?
Better 49%
Worse 11%
No Difference (voluntary) 33%

Do you think Barack Obama's trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East is better described as a fact-finding trip or as a campaign event?
Fact-finding 19%
Campaign event 47%
Both (voluntary) 25%

Zimbabwe Power Sharing Talks Underway

As noted earlier, talks are underway in South Africa between Zimbabwean rivals Zanu PF and MDC. 

The delegates, from Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF, and both factions of the Movement for Democratic Change, are expected to devote the next 14 days, uninterrupted, to the negotiations.

There have been reports that it may be possible for the delegates to reach final agreement within that timeframe. 

While not specifically incorporated in the agenda for these talks, the security forces, and particularly the Joint Operations Command, will require close attention from the delegates. The Joint Operations Command is run by a senior party official, the various military commanders, the chiefs of police and prisons, and the country's senior intelligence official. 

Raftopoulos says this group is the power behind Mr. Mugabe.

"The Joint Operation Command has basically been running the country, certainly during this election period. And they have played an enormously destructive role in the violence, in fact coordinating it and orchestrating it," he added. "So their future role obviously requires a reform of their role and certainly a re-look at the security apparatus generally."  (Link)

The militia issue is not trivial.  These "green bomber youths" wreaked havoc in Zimbabwe prior to the runoff election and now are feeling a bit vulnerable since President Mugabe appears to be abandoning them and their victims have new power.

Two of the young men, who had spent months beating, looting, raping and killing people in their neighborhood near Harare, sat recently with anxious eyes and furrowed brows. They looked so non-threatening that it was difficult to picture them beating up a 12-year-old just for wearing red, or helping to burn a house where people died in the flames in the months before the June 27 presidential runoff. They behaved like guilty boys, defensive about their "chores.

Like his victims, the 25-year-old lives with fear. He believes the spirits of those he killed will come and take vengeance. He is afraid to walk alone in his neighborhood, because an angry mob might rise up and kill him for what he has done in Mugabe's name.

And he's afraid of his superiors.  "If you don't do it, they can just tell you, 'You are a spy;' they can start beating you, or kill you."

He's remorseful, up to a point; but mostly he blames his commanders. He was only "following orders." (Link)

Ah, the old "I was only following orders" defense.  Some truly horrible deeds have been done throughout history using that defense. 

Needless to say, the Zimbabwe situation is perilous.  Given Mugabe's actions and statements prior and just following the rigged and illegal runoff election,  one might presume his intentions are not all that honorable.  Let's hope for the best.

Grandpa Abe and McCain

Endorsements are all important.  John McCain has scored a big one...Grandpa Abe Simpson.


Mccain__oPt  



As it turns out, there are some similarities between the Senator and Grandpa

Some Mercury Prize Nominees

The Mercury Prize is Britain's equivalent to our Grammy Award.  Nominees for Album of the Year have been announced and the awards ceremony is scheduled for September.  Nominees are:

Adele - 19
British Sea Power - Do You Like Rock Music?
Burial - Untrue
Elbow - The Seldom Seen Kid
Estelle - Shine
Laura Marling - Alas I Cannot Swim
Neon Neon - Stainless Style
Portico Quartet - Knee-Deep in the North Sea
Rachel Unthank & The Winterset - The Bairns
Radiohead - In Rainbows
Robert Plant & Alison Krauss - Raising Sand
The Last Shadow Puppets - The Age of the Understatement

Here's Burial "Arcangel"

And Elbow "Grounds for Divorce"

The Obama Speech

Video of Barack Obama's speech today at the Victory Gate in Berlin, Germany.

It's A Pretty Good Day

It's easy to be consumed by all the bad stuff.  The economy, an often lame presidential race, gasoline prices pushing $5/gallon, and an Administration that has contempt for the Constitution and rule of law.

But look a little higher....and there's some pretty good news out there:

  -  David Ignatius has a column in todays Washington Post about the ongoing discussions between sworn enemies, Israel and Syria.

  -  Serbian war criminal Radovan Karadzic was apprehended and will face charges before the World Court for genocide.

  -  Power sharing talks between rival Zimbabwe forces Zanu-PF and MDC began in South Africa today.

  -  U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama spoke today before 200K screaming, American flag waving Germans in Berlin.

  -  Sudanese President Bashir was finally charged with genocide and crimes against humanity for his governments crimes in Darfur.

It's good to take a few steps back sometimes....

200,000 for Obama in Berlin

Obama_span_blog Claiming to speak not as a presidential candidate, "but as a citizen – a proud citizen of the United States, and a fellow citizen of the world", Barack Obama addressed a crowd of 200,000 in Berlin today. 

It was a broad, wideranging speech, touching on the German/American alliance since WWII, global warming, nuclear proliferation, the need for allies, the Israel/Palestinian conflict, Darfur, Zimbabwe, Iran, and the work left in Iraq and Afghanistan.

An excerpt:

I know my country has not perfected itself. At times, we’ve struggled to keep the promise of liberty and equality for all of our people. We’ve made our share of mistakes, and there are times when our actions around the world have not lived up to our best intentions.

But I also know how much I love America. I know that for more than two centuries, we have strived – at great cost and great sacrifice – to form a more perfect union; to seek, with other nations, a more hopeful world. Our allegiance has never been to any particular tribe or kingdom – indeed, every language is spoken in our country; every culture has left its imprint on ours; every point of view is expressed in our public squares. What has always united us – what has always driven our people; what drew my father to America’s shores – is a set of ideals that speak to aspirations shared by all people: that we can live free from fear and free from want; that we can speak our minds and assemble with whomever we choose and worship as we please.

These are the aspirations that joined the fates of all nations in this city. These aspirations are bigger than anything that drives us apart. It is because of these aspirations that the airlift began. It is because of these aspirations that all free people – everywhere – became citizens of Berlin. It is in pursuit of these aspirations that a new generation – our generation – must make our mark on the world.

People of Berlin – and people of the world – the scale of our challenge is great. The road ahead will be long. But I come before you to say that we are heirs to a struggle for freedom. We are a people of improbable hope. With an eye toward the future, with resolve in our hearts, let us remember this history, and answer our destiny, and remake the world once again.

Beijing Olympic Venues

Beijing is in the midst of preparing for the Summer Olympics and completing some major athletic venues.  A couple photos.

Badminton_780777i

The Beijing University of Technology Gymnasium will host badminton and rhythmic gymnastics competitions. Seats 7,500
Picture: AFP/GETTY




Birds-nest_780766i


The Beijing National Stadium will host the main track and field competitions and the opening and closing ceremonies. It seats 91,000
Picture: REUTERS



Basketball_780769i

The Beijing Olympic Basketball Gymnasium has a capacity of 18,000
Picture: AP

German Press Goes Ga-Ga Over Obama

A sampling of German newspapers documenting Barack Obama's visit to Germany today.

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July 23, 2008

Iraq President Rejects Election Law

The U.S. backed provincial elections in Iraq have suffered a setback when Iraq's presidential council rejected a draft election lawand returned it to the Iraqi Parliament for reworking.  The elections, scheduled for this autumn, will now likely be delayed.

The elections are expected to redistribute power in Iraq's 18 provinces in what is considered a necessary step toward reconciliation. Many Sunni Arabs boycotted provincial balloting in January 2005, enabling Shiite Muslims and Kurds to win a disproportionate share of power.

Talabani's rejection had been anticipated after parliament approved the law Tuesday despite a Kurdish walkout to protest a secret ballot held on a section dealing with the disputed oil-rich Kirkuk region.

Talabani said earlier Wednesday that he could not approve a law that was approved by only 127 members of the 275-strong parliament. The body had claimed it passed since the 127 represented a majority of the 140 lawmakers present for the voting.

"But if the law is not approved in the coming week, then the date will be changed to sometime in 2009," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of security concerns. (Link)

Reconcilliation and power redistribution would be considered positive progress for the Maliki government by the White House.  However, it's not clear that the law is in Prime Minister Maliki's best interest.  Maliki supports a powerful central government controlled by Shia, and a redistributing power to Sunni and Kurdish provincesmay make the Bush Administration happy, it goes counter to Maliki's goals and objectives. 

It's becoming increasingly clear the Iraqis want to flex their sovereign muscles.  The recent demand for timetables for U.S. troop withdrawals and, now, this rejection of the U.S. favored provincial elections is further evidence the Mailiki government cares a whole lot more aboutsecuring their own power in Iraq and less about the desires of a lame duck Bush Administration.

A Picture for the Day

24117398

A girl waited in line for food distribution in Islamabad, Pakistan. Growing economic and political uncertainty pushed Pakistani markets to new depths and helped start nationwide protests. (NY Times)

Anbar Sheik Cited by McCain Was Assasinated Last Year

Thumb160x_mccain_02 I almost feel bad for John McCain.  In the annals of all time worst weeks, I think the Senator has a shot at the gold.  Late last week McCain was suckerpunched when Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki came out, essentially, in favor of Barack Obama's plan for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

Yesterday, in his attempt to claim everything that's ever been good in Iraq is a result of the surge, he wrongly asserted the Sunni Awakening had occured as a result of the surge of U.S. troops into Iraq in the spring and summer of 2007.  In further defense of the surge, Senator McCain said:

"Colonel MacFarland was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks," said the Senator. "Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening."

The Arizona Republican's campaign went further the next day, claiming that the major figures that turned around Anbar province would have been killed had the surge policy not been in place. "If Barack Obama had had his way, the Sheiks who started the Awakening would have been murdered at the hands of al Qaeda," said spokesman Tucker Bounds. (Link)

As it turns out, the major Sunni sheik responsible for coordinating the Sunni Awakening to turn against al Qaeda in western Iraq, Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, wasassasinated by an al Qaeda group in September 2007 - the midst of the U.S. surge.

Cabinet Level Meeting Between U.S. and North Korea

A meeting today between Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun marked the first meeting between the two countries top diplomats since 2004.  Secretary Rice urged the North Koreans to continue making progress on the negotiated nuclear disarmament agreement in order to improve relations between the two countries.

"We didn't get into specific timetables, but the spirit was good because people believe we have made progress," she told reporters after the meeting on the sidelines of an Asian security forum in Singapore.

"There is also a sense of urgency about moving forward and a sense that we can't afford to have another hiatus," Rice said of her talks with Pak and the foreign ministers of the other four nations — China, Japan, Russia and South Korea — involved in the effort.

"What is important in the next stage is that these measures should lead to a complete abandonment of hostile (U.S.) policies toward our republic," North Korean spokesman Ri Tong Il told reporters. Pyongyang maintains that Washington is intent on North Korea's destruction.

However, he also said that Pyongyang hoped the meeting would build momentum toward ending the declaration and verification stage and move toward a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, which closed with an armistice rather than a peace treaty.

Rice said there had been "a lot of discussion" about the proposal, which calls for intrusive inspections, interviews with scientists and a role for the U.N. nuclear watchdog, but would not say if the North had moved beyond preliminary objections to some of elements.

However, she insisted that the meeting "was actually very good." (
Link)

What's noteworthy about this meeting is that North Korea, despite their concern Washington is "intent on North Korea's destruction", continues to see the value of negotiating.  A lesson President Bush and John McCain could take to heart.

The Veepstakes

It's getting close to convention time.  By the time the two parties nominate their presidential candidates, each will have picked a running mate and speculation of who's in and who's out has been heating up.  Robert Novak had even reported this week that John McCain was considering revealing his choice in a bid to offset media fascination with rival Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East and Europe.

Chris Cilizza at the Washington Post has his latest picks as to the leading contenders:

Republicans

1.  Mitt Romney

2.  Tim Pawlenty

3.  Rob Portman

4.  John Thune

5.  Sarah Palin

Democrats:

1.  Evan Bayh

2.  Tim Kaine

3.  Jack Reed

4.  Joe Biden

5.  Hillary Clinton

Cliizza explains his rationale as follows:

For Obama, that choice is between change and experience. Does Obama opt for a vice president who reinforces his fresh-faced appeal (Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas) or does he go for a more known commodity within the party who has the experience he lacks (Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Jack Reed of Rhode Island)?

McCain's choice is whether to throw a "short pass" or a "Hail Mary."  The short pass candidates are people that McCain is personally close to or would fit an obvious need for him. Choosing a "short pass" candidate would be a signal that McCain believes he can win this race without fundamentally altering its current dynamic. Among the "short pass" names are: Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

The "Hail Mary" option would suggest that McCain believes that he has to shake up the race with an entirely unexpected and unorthodox choice that would carry great reward and great risk. It's the opposite of a safe pick. Among that group: Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sarah Palin of Alaska.

Is CBS Covering Up Humiliating McCain Error?

I wrote a couple posts yesterday: one questioning whether the media is providing more favorable coverage to Obama and the other about the timing of the Sunni Awakening relative to the surge of U.S. forces in Iraq.

In a related story, it would seem CBS News edited, prior to showing, a video of John McCain falsely arguing the Sunni Awakening was a result of the surge. 


Steve Benen asks the obvious questions:

Why would CBS News cover-up arguably the biggest candidate error of the entire presidential campaign?

Why would CBS News mix-and-match McCain’s responses to make him appear less incompetent?

Why would CBS News broadcast a question but not the answer to the question?

Why would CBS News post the entire actual interview online, making it easy for us to see their mischief?

Why would CBS News deliberately take the most newsworthy element of the interview, and leave it on the editing room floor?

Why didn’t Katie Couric hear McCain’s ridiculous answer, and ask a follow-up question seeking clarification?

There may well be a bunch of reporters following Barack Obama around the Middle East and Europe this week and there's no question he's receiving the lions share of coverage.  And that's apparently enough for some to claim the media is biased in Obama's favor. 

But sending a bunch of reporters overseas to take pictures of Obama hardly compares to a media that seems willing to cover up a candidates blatant and damaging errors.  Once again, I can only imagine the outrage that would come if Barack Obama was one, repeatedly wrong on the facts and two, the media refused to report those errors.

The McCain Meltdown

Mccain-787625 Joe Klein has never seen anything like it.  As unbecoming a comment from a presidential candidate as Klein has ever seen covering nine presidential campaigns.  From Swampland:

John McCain said this today in Rochester, New Hampshire:

This is a clear choice that the American people have. I had the courage and the judgment to say I would rather lose a political campaign than lose a war. It seems to me that Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.

This is the ninth presidential campaign I've covered. I can't remember a more scurrilous statement by a major party candidate. It smacks of desperation. It renews questions about whether McCain has the right temperament for the presidency. How sad.

Scurrility Update: Readers should note that I said that I can't remember a more scurrilous statement by a major party candidate. Smart politicians leave the scurrilous stuff to their aides; in fact, a McCain spokesman expressed these words almost exactly on July 14. There is a reason why politicians who want to be President don't say these sort of things: It isn't presidential. A President exists in the straitjacket of literality. His words mean something. So John McCain has to literally believe that Barack Obama would "rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign." I can't imagine that he does. He popped off, out of frustration.

July 22, 2008

Obama In Baghdad

Barack Obama with a crowd of cheering troops and State Department workers last night at the American Embassy in Baghdad:

New Economic Lessons

The victims to our economic meltdown will not only include lots of individuals, but some long standing axioms about market efficiency and the power of deregulation to stimulate economic growth.  The Financial Times has a good review of some of the myths that will fall victim to this bursting bubble.

The credit crisis has destroyed the idea that unregulated financial markets always efficiently channel savings to the most promising investment projects. Millions of US citizens took on unsustainable debts... When the bust came, a large number of Americans who had been promised a new life in their beautiful homes were told to move out. This boom and bust cycle cannot have been an example of efficient channelling of savings into the most promising investment projects.

The fact that unregulated financial markets fail to deliver the wonders of efficiency does not mean that governments should take over. That would be worse. What it does mean is that a new equilibrium must be found in which tighter regulation is reintroduced, aimed at reducing the propensities of too many in the markets to take on excessive risks.

There is a second idea that is likely to become the victim of the financial crisis. This is the idea found in macro economic models, that individuals are supremely well-informed creatures...  If we have learnt one thing from the credit crisis it is that individuals did not understand the “truth” and, it must be admitted, neither did economists. Individuals who sold the new financial instruments did not understand the risk embedded in these instruments, nor did the buyers.  When the bubble started many interpreted the happy turn of affairs as permanent and took on massive levels of debt that turned out to be unsustainable. When the bubble burst, they did not understand what had happened and nor did most experts. Our world is one of a fundamental lack of understanding of the “truth”.

In the world of these macroeconomic models financial crises should not occur. And if they do, it cannot be because of malfunctioning markets. Governments that impose silly constraints on rational individuals are messing things up, and central banks that do not keep their promises to maintain price stability are the source of macroeconomic instability.

Lessons are only good for those willing to learn.